The discreet rise of James Purnell

The Labour Party has been in a state of suspended animation since the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. As Rachel Sylvester reports today, the private unanimity among Labour MPs, from the Cabinet to the backest of benches, that they cannot win with Gordon Brown is shocking. But David Miliband has not yet made the compelling case for a leadership change, failing to "tell it like it is" after the Irish No vote on the Lisbon Treaty, for example. He remains the most likely beneficiary of a revolt against Brown, which I still think is more likely than not before the next election, but MPs are waiting to see what happens, fretting that David Cameron is meanwhile allowed to pose as an alternate prime minister. One important finding of our poll for The Independent on Sunday was that, although the voters agree that Labour has to get rid of Brown if it is to have a chance of winning, specific questions about the two most likely replacements produce negative responses. More people disagree that Alan Johnson or David Miliband would be a better prime minister than Brown than agree - although the margin is small. Hence the importance of a speech made by James Purnell, Work and Pensions Secretary, to Progress last week. It was very good, hardly reported at all, although Black Dog in The Mail on Sunday picked up the information from Paul Waugh's blog that it had been written by Phil Collins, Tony Blair's former speechwriter. It is significant, as my colleague Jane Merrick reported a while ago, that Collins is still working part time for Purnell. But it is more significant that Purnell not only runs an important delivery department but makes brilliant speeches. Here, he took the fight to the Conservatives with a wit and skill that was refreshing because so unfamiliar. On the 42 days vote, he said: When Gordon Brown made the Conservatives choose between policy and positioning, they fell apart. David Cameron wanted to defeat the government. Michael Gove and George Osborne were worried they were on the wrong side of the argument. David Davis just wanted to have an argument. Two things count against Purnell in the Labour leadership stakes. One is time. As the youngest member of the Cabinet, he needs time to establish himself. Is 18 months enough? The other is that he is an unapologetic Blairite, having begun his political career in Blair's office in opposition. That's why the speech was interesting, because it was such an effective attack on Cameron. Just as Blair became leader primarily because his party recognised him as the most potent anti-Tory weapon, Purnell in this speech showed that he can marshal the most effective anti-Cameron argument. Cameron has said many times that we shouldn't judge him on where he's come from but where he's going. Absolutely: I couldn't care less where he went to school or who his parents are. It's where he's going that worries me, not where he's been. Because I don't think, in his heart of hearts, he knows who he is any more. At every stage in his life David Cameron has just drifted with the orthodoxy around him. The answer, for him, is always blowing in the wind.So when people say he's really right wing they're almost right. He was really right wing once. He wrote the 2005 manifesto, after all. But then the wind changed direction so he turned with it. No wonder several Labour people in Westminster in the past few days have said to me: "Have you read Purnell's speech?" By John Rentoul